An economic expert has predicted that the dollar price will exceed 250,000 tomans by the end of the year, analyzing the country's political and economic situation. Amir Mohammad Golvani, an economic expert, discussed the determining factors of the exchange rate in Iran's economy at the 'Iran Economy Outlook 1405' conference. He pointed out the limitations of common prediction models and presented scenarios for the future path of the currency market.
Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
Assuming high inflation, liquidity growth, limited economic growth, and oil and gas exports of about 40 billion dollars, Golvani estimates various models of the average annual exchange rate to be in the range of approximately 190,000 to 258,000 tomans. The average of these methods indicates a figure around 230,000 to 240,000 tomans. In this estimate, the purchasing power parity model provides the lowest figure, and the monetary model offers the highest figure.
Future Scenarios of the Currency Market
According to this expert, in the second scenario, due to extremely high inflation conditions, the process of adjusting the exchange rate is much faster than before, and it is no longer possible to suppress the exchange rate for a long time. Inflationary pressure quickly manifests itself in the currency market. In this scenario, escalating political and security tensions, reduced oil exports, economic growth decline, increased liquidity, and intensified inflation are assumed. Currency rate evaluation models estimate it to be on average above the range of 280,000 tomans.
