An economic expert, analyzing the political and economic situation of the country, has predicted that the dollar price will exceed ٢٥٠,٠٠٠ tomans by the end of the year. Amir Mohammad Golvani, an economic expert, discussed the determining factors of the exchange rate in Iran's economy at the "Iran's Economic Outlook ١٤٠٥" conference. He pointed out the limitations of common forecasting models and presented scenarios for the future path of the currency market.
Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate
Assuming high inflation, liquidity growth, limited economic growth, and oil and gas exports of about ٤٠ billion dollars, Golvani estimates various exchange rate models for the average year in the range of approximately ١٩٠ to ٢٥٨ thousand tomans. The average of these methods indicates a figure of around ٢٣٠ to ٢٤٠ thousand tomans. In this estimate, the purchasing power parity model provides the lowest figure, and the monetary model offers the highest figure.
Future Scenarios of the Currency Market
According to this expert, in the second scenario, due to very high inflation conditions, the process of adjusting the exchange rate is much faster than in the past, and it is no longer possible to suppress the exchange rate for a long time. Inflationary pressure quickly manifests itself in the currency market. In this scenario, escalating political and security tensions, reduced oil exports, declining economic growth, increased liquidity, and intensified inflation are assumed. Evaluation models estimate the exchange rate to be on average above the range of ٢٨٠ thousand tomans.
